David Alter Previews Bodog’s 2024 Stanley Cup Futures
The Vegas Golden Knights took home Lord Stanley’s Cup after making quick work of the Florida Panthers. But can they do it again? David Alter previews Bodog’s 2024 Stanley Cup futures.
Vegas Golden Knights owner Bill Foley made a bold prediction back in 2016 when he was awarded an expansion NHL franchise.
“Stanley Cup in six” years.
Earlier this week he made good on that prediction. If someone made a prop for that wager, it probably would have been +10000 on Bodog’s hockey odds board.
Previous to the Golden Knights, NHL expansion franchises needed many years to build. But Vegas found lightning in a bottle. Some shrewd moves and a favourable expansion draft allowed for Vegas to surprise and make it to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final in their very first season. Had they won it, it would have paid out at +20000.
So given what Vegas had done, and with much of their core locked up, you’d think Vegas would be favoured to repeat, right?
Wrong.
Vegas is tied for the fourth-best odds on Bodog’s 2024 Stanley Cup futures at +1100, tied with the Boston Bruins, who crashed in the first round after losing to eventual finalists Florida.
The Colorado Avalanche have the best odds at +850 and I kind of see it. The 2022 Stanley Cup champions dealt with a ton of injuries including being without the services of captain Gabriel Landeskog for the entire season. They still pulled off grabbing the best record in the Central Division with 109 points. But they’ll be without Landeskog again. Unlike last season when they didn’t have the complexity of his knee injury, Colorado will be able to use the captain’s entire $7 million salary cap hit on another player. And if Landeskog is able to pull off a Mark Stone and come back in time for the playoffs when the salary cap doesn’t apply anymore. Well, there’s your loaded cup contender.
But we’ve got to talk about what’s happening here with the Canadian teams.
The Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs are tied for the second-best odds to win the Stanley Cup at +900.
The Oilers I can understand to a degree. Outside of their wretched goaltending situation, they’ve got the star power and support staff to get the job done. They gave the Golden Knights their toughest challenge of the playoffs during their second-round series.
But the Maple Leafs? Come on.
Every year, the Maple Leafs shoot right up near the top of the best odds and on paper we can understand it. They have a loaded core with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William
Nylander. The next year is always the year.
But the Leafs are undergoing massive surgery and have way more questions than answers compared to any other season. Toronto has a new general manager after they dismissed Kyle Dubas from the position on May 19. Brad Treliving is now in charge and will have make a decision on 10 unrestricted free agents coming up, many of whom will not be back. Plus there’s no telling what changes could come if the Leafs end up trading one of the core players.
Given all the change that goes with the uncertainty, I don’t think that is fairly accounted for in the +900 number. Do not bet this.
Value Bets I Like
How about some disrespectful plays here?
Seattle is +3500. How quickly we forget how much the Kraken improved in just one season.
Another good search for value is to look for a team that missed out on the playoffs that is normally a good team. Who can forget that the Golden Knights actually missed the playoffs last season?
The St. Louis Blues are +5000 and have a lot of good pieces and don’t need to do much else. Now imagine if they got Ryan O’Reilly back after trading him to Toronto?
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