Super Bowl LIX Betting Favourites
On Sunday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, the Kansas City Chiefs did what no other team has done since 2004-2005: they won back-to-back Super Bowls. It was no easy feat; the San Francisco 49ers held the lead for most of the game with their dominant run game led by star running back Christian McCaffrey. Kansas City needed a last-minute field goal to tie the game and force overtime.
Unlike last year’s Super Bowl, which the Chiefs won 38-35 over the Philadelphia Eagles, offense was hard to come by this time around. Both teams’ defensive units were firing on all cylinders and stifled their opponent’s attack. San Fran’s rookie safety Ji’ayir Brown managed to pick off KC’s QB Patrick Mahomes on third down of the opening drive of the second half. The 49ers earned an early touchdown on a trick play in the second quarter and a second touchdown in the fourth, which saw placekicker Jake Moody’s extra point get blocked.
Mahomes passed for one touchdown in the third, and when the Chiefs were down 19-16 with less than two minutes to go, they opted for the 27-yard field goal to tie and force overtime.
The 49ers got first possession in overtime and settled for a 27-yard field goal, but when the Chiefs got the ball, Mahomes made no mistake executing a game-winning drive that finished with WR Mecole Hardman catching a quick pass in the end zone.
Mahomes won his third Super Bowl MVP award, and coach Andy Reid became the fifth head coach of all time to win three Super Bowls; for those bettors who took the Gatorade shower prop—the team doused him with purple Gatorade at the end.
Betting for next year’s Super Bowl LIX has already opened for business. The game will take place at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana on February 9, 2025. New Orleans were originally selected as hosts for the 2024 Super Bowl, but when the regular season schedule expanded to 17 games, there was a scheduling conflict with the city’s Mardi Gras festival. With the big game in the Big Easy, could there be value with picking the New Orleans Saints? They’re not in the top eight Super Bowl LIX betting favourites, so there’s plenty of upside for picking the home club. Here are the top eight picks on the futures market at press time:
Kansas City Chiefs +500
The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS) lead the board with +500 odds to make it three in a row. The word “dynasty” was used in the post-game celebrations, and it’s hard to argue with their success. Tight end Travis Kelce stated that “the goal has always been to get three [Super Bowls]”. Beforehand, Mahomes responded to broadcaster Jim Nantz’ comments on Kansas City being underdogs for three straight games, saying “just know that the Kansas City Chiefs are not underdogs.”
The Chiefs will need to look to the draft to add some more depth on their receiving corps. They’ll also have to navigate upcoming free agencies for defensive back L’Jarius Sneed and defensive lineman Chris Jones. Restructuring Mahomes’ monster contract could help them free up some needed cap space.
San Francisco 49ers +600
Close but no cigar—but that’s no disrespect to the 49ers (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS). What the 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has been able to accomplish without an elite quarterback is impressive. This was Shanahan’s second time bringing the 49ers to the Super Bowl in four years—the last time was with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm in 2019. In between those two appearances are two NFC Championship appearances (in 2021 and 2022).
A lot will ride on trade-deadline acquisition defensive end Chase Young, who made his way from the lowly Commanders to the 49ers in the 2023 regular season. Many considered it a short-term solution, as Young hits free agency this offseason, but he could be a good candidate for the franchise tag, which would give the 49ers some time to assess his long-term value.
Baltimore Ravens +1000
The Ravens finished the season with the best record in the league (13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS), leading them to be pegged as favourites for every step of the postseason. They beat the Houston Texans as mega 10-point favourites in the Divisional Round, but fell 17-10 to the Chiefs as 4.5-point favourites in the Conference Championship game.
The offseason will be challenging for the Ravens’ brass, as several starters on the defensive line, key offensive guards, and several receivers are all slated to hit free agency. Keeping running backs healthy continues to be a challenge for the run-heavy team, so there’s a big question mark around RB JK Dobbins. Dobbins showed promise in his rookie year in 2020, but was sidelined for much of 2022 and almost all of 2023 with major injuries.
Buffalo Bills +1100
After finishing first in the AFC East, thanks to a tiebreaker win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 4, the 11-6 Bills (7-9-1 ATS) were pitted against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a wildcard game that saw Buffalo dominate right from the start as 10-point favourites. After sealing the 31-17 victory, the Bills entered the Divisional round against the Chiefs as 2.5-point home favourites. History repeated itself – for the third time in the past four postseasons, the Bills succumbed to the Chiefs.
The Bills will get the 28th pick at the NFL Draft in April, and being cap-strapped, they’ll have their work cut out for them as they deal with key members from their front four and secondary’s impending free agency. Holding onto receiver Gabe Davis may not be in the cards.
Detroit Lions +1200
The Detroit Lions (12-5 SU and ATS) had a strong season with Jared Goff at the helm. Goff racked up the second-most passing yards in the league (4,575), thanks to his top target, Amon-Ra St. Brown (1,515 receiving yards). After missing the postseason for six straight seasons, they made it all the way to the NFC Championship round, eliminating the LA Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the process.
Pitted against the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, the Lions came out of the gates strong, but fell off in the second half despite Goff passing for a touchdown in the final minute. They’ll need to focus on finding a cornerback this offseason and could accomplish this with their 29th Draft pick. However, the potential free agency loss of offensive lineman Graham Glasgow could also be troubling.
Cincinnati Bengals +1400
The Bengals (9-8 SU, 7-8-2 ATS) were dealt a tough blow mid-season when franchise QB Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury. Despite backup QB Jake Browning’s admirable performance filling in, the Bengals were bumped from playoff contention in Week 17 when the Chiefs dropped the hammer on them.
There’s every reason to be optimistic about the Bengals going forward. Burrow had a career season in 2022 and is expected to return healthy for the 2024 season. Thanks to their 9-8 record, the Bengals get the 18th pick in the first round of the NFL Draft, which they may need to focus on shoring up their receivers; they could see the loss of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to free agency. Fortunately, they have a fair amount of cap space to play with.
Green Bay Packers +1500
In Year No. 1 of the Jordan Love era, the Packers finished the regular season 9-8 (9-8 ATS), right behind the Lions in the NFC North. Love’s impressive 32 touchdown stat is marred by his 11 interceptions, but he showed improvement as the season wore on. The Packers eked their way into the postseason thanks to a three-way tie breaker, and as No. 7 seeds, they eliminated the No. 2 seeded Dallas Cowboys, but were eliminated by the 49ers in the Divisional round.
The Packers could use some improvements at safety and cornerback for the upcoming season. Their new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley is hatching a completely new scheme for the defensive unit that will be more aggressive than the previous scheme.
Dallas Cowboys +1600
Cowboys fans were crushed when they lost 48-32 to the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card round off the heels of a surging final two weeks of the regular season. The Cowboys (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) were 7-point favourites in that one and were clueless with how to stop Green Bay’s offensive attack that included three TDs ran in from Aaron Jones and three passed by Jordan Love, who was getting his first taste of postseason play. To make matters worse, Dallas QB Dak Prescott was picked off twice.
The Cowboys will have to deal with three big names heading to free agency in Tyler Biadasz, Tyron Smith and Tony Pollard. They could also stand to add more defensive depth to become stronger contenders next year.
Who do you think is going to lift the trophy next year? Let us know your Super Bowl LIX picks over on X.