NFL Betting: Our MVP Value Pick
What a smashing season we had: underdogs rising from the ashes, favourites unceremoniously toppled, players who realised their full potential when the moment called for it…
Now, we might still be some weeks out from the start of this year’s football season, but the points and counterpoints over who will stand out as the MVP are already whirling around in a flurry of contention. Topping the 2022 NFL MVP betting markets are some of the usual suspects, including a “one-more-for-the-road” cameo by one player of note, who had announced with much fanfare his plans to retire.
But standing in prime position with +650 NFL MVP odds at Bodog is the man with the best arm in the league, and star quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen. In 2021-22, Allen started every game in the regular season, led the NFL in average rushing yards, and achieved personal bests in several key metrics. He’s going from strength to strength and, at just 26 years of age, won’t slow down anytime soon.
Close behind in a tie, each with odds of +900, are Justin Herbert and Tom Brady. Herbert is only starting his third season in the NFL, but after being the overall sixth pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback went on to win offensive rookie of the year that season after starting in all 17 games in 2021.
Brady, on the other hand, is a man needing no introduction. After announcing his retirement back in February, and giving civilian life a good, hard go for a little over a month, the NFL’s most enduring icon decided that the grass was greener on the field, after all. In declaring his return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it was a no-brainer that Mr Tom Brady should be ushered up the ladder of favourites for the 2022 MVP pick.
Searching for an MVP Value Pick
While each of these three players are inarguably excellent selections for the astute bettor’s bet slip, that doesn’t necessarily mean any of them offer up the best value in betting on football. Plenty can change between now and January, with ample time to watch thus-far unremarkable players really coming into their own to vie for the highest individual honour in the NFL.
We saw it happen in 2018, after all. Patrick Mahomes, considerably down on the list of potentials in just his second season (and after playing just one game in 2017) was crowned MVP. The league saw his value, and bettors who got behind Mahomes early were greatly rewarded as well with better odds.
That’s why, here at Bodog, we analyze more than just the odds of the top favourites. We search for MVP candidates who ooze value in the early stages of the season and could help our bettors win it big.
Bodog’s Pick: Aaron Rodgers
Of course, out of all the leading players in the league, the MVP pick has to be a quarterback. Only one non-QB has won the award since 2006 because you have to achieve biblical-level feats to attract the attention of the judges as a player of any other position.
That narrowed down the field – a lot. Aside from Rodgers, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson stood out, and with NFL MVP odds of +12500 and +8000 respectively, they offer the prospect of huge payouts. At this time, however, they’re still a little too unknown to take home the award.
Rodgers, on the other hand, has just signed a new deal, has a quality playing style no one can deny, and he’s won MVP four times already.
So, why shouldn’t he win it again?
Aaron Rodgers: Performance Last Season
Aaron Rodgers had been one of the early favourites for NFL MVP last season (though he wasn’t first in line) and remained in contention for much of the year. He was eventually given the award back in February for his contributions to the Packers’ division-topping regular-season performance.
For anyone paying attention, it shouldn’t have come as a surprise since he led the league in four separate metrics: starting record, passer rating, passing touchdown percentage, and interception percentage.
Things didn’t go quite as planned in the divisional round of the playoffs. Green Bay lost 13-10 to the 49ers just as the Buccaneers were beaten by eventual champions, the LA Rams.
Aaron Rodgers: NFL History
Aaron Rodgers is now truly a household name beyond anything non-NFL fans. The Californian was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and has remained on the roster in Green Bay ever since. After moving into a starting role in 2008, he’s won the NFL MVP on four separate occasions: the first in 2011, the second in 2014, and the most recent two in 2020 and 2021.
Although he’s approaching 40 and his beard is showing flecks of grey, Rodgers continues to be one of the best players in the league. He had been considering retiring after the 2021 season, but signed a fresh three-year deal to become the highest-paid player in the history of all major American sports leagues.
Despite being one of the most successful players in NFL history, Rodgers has only won one Super Bowl, which, thankfully, doesn’t disqualify him from winning the MVP award one bit.
Why Aaron Rodgers is Our NFL MVP Value Pick
It’s laughably easy to quantify the achievements and overall value that Aaron Rodgers brings to the competition. His Green Bay Packers currently have Super Bowl odds of +1000. Before Rodgers signed his new contract in March, they had landed further down the list with +1600 odds.
In 2020, Rodgers enjoyed the 88% of MVP votes cast, and in 2021, still managed to receive 78% – these are some of the highest tallies in the history of the award (though, admittedly, not as high as the 100% Lamar Jackson achieved in 2019).
Indeed, no player has ever won three MVPs in consecutive years, but Rodgers has proven himself more than capable of breaking records throughout his career, so there’s no reason he couldn’t do the same this season.
One potential missing key to the MVP lock risk for Rodgers is Davante Adams, his favourite wide receiver, who’ll depart the Packers this season. But – since Rodgers was already leading the league long before Adams joined the team in 2014, this may not impose the disastrous downstream influence many are suggesting.
Here at Bodog, the pursuit of the fresh MVP honour started long ago. Can Rodgers win a third MVP in a row? If you think he can, then his +1400 NFL MVP betting odds are an absolute steal for 2022. The longer you wait, the more the odds could shorten, so get your slips in stat to lock in their value and win it big.