NBA Finals Game 5 Preview: Josh Eberley
Can the Denver Nuggets wrap up the series inside their home arena? Josh Eberley takes a look at the NBA finals betting.
The Miami Heat are at the cliff’s edge and as you’ve likely heard a million times this postseason run, the Denver Nuggets home court advantage offers a steep precipice.
Elevation aside, the Heat fought admirably in Games 1 and 2, walking away 1-1 to start the series given they were heavily outmatched on paper was enough to turn some heads but the wheels fell off at home. They’ve lost the last two games by 15 and 13 respectively and now find themselves as +9 underdogs in a win or home Game 5.
If you are a Lord of the Rings fan, you’ll remember Bernard Hill’s Theoden saying, “Look at my men. Their courage hangs by a thread. If this is to be our end, then I would have them make such an end, as to be worthy of remembrance.” It’s that sort of time for Jimmy Butler and the Heat.
Butler’s not been the same player in this series. After piecing together one of the all-time special legacy runs, Butler’s been vastly outplayed by the Nuggets stars and even members of the Heat supporting cast have outscored him in two-of-four contests. Butler’s over/under for points, rebounds, and assists is 39.5, he hasn’t hit the over on that mark once in this series, and the Heat badly need him to deliver a banger of a performance if they are going to force Game 6.
It’s hard to imagine Denver wanting to fly back to Miami but if you believe the Heat aren’t done shocking the world just yet — and you think Butler is going to have that signature game even if it is ultimately just to postpone the series. . . 35+ points, 4+ triples, and a Heat win pays +6000.
The Heat, who have enjoyed an off the charts explosion of outlier three-point shooting this postseason have fallen down to earth. The team shot only 31% from deep on their home floor in the last two games opposed to the 38.4% they enjoyed over the playoffs prior. Max Strus, who has hit over 40 triples for Miami in each of the last two postseasons has completely lost it. (Strus is +134 to hit 3 or more triples in Game 5.)
The Nuggets have got star performances from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, both delivering memorable and dominant showings in Miami. (Murray is now averaging 10.5 assists per game in the Finals and he’s not even known as a playmaker around the league.) But more than that, their unsung heroes keep coming up big. In Game 4 it was Aaron Gordon who despite being the defensive glue guy in the starting lineup chipped in 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists on an extremely healthy 73% shooting. Gordon is now averaging 16.5 PPG in the series and leads all players with a +53 through four games, which is the highest finals total from any player over the last five years.
Jokic – 29.5 Points: Over -114 / Under -114
Butler – 26.5 Points: Over -113 / Under -115
Murray – 25.5 Points: Over +100 / Under -130
Adebayo – 20.5 Points: Over -102 / Under -129
Gordon – 13.5 Points: Over -108 / Under -121
Looking at scoring props for Game 5, Gordon has crossed the 13.5 threshold twice this finals but it’s Bam Adebayo who has most consistently hit the mark. Adebayo has scored north of 20 in three-of-four Finals games and his lone miss was a 20-point outing. If the Heat do go out in the dreaded gentleman’s sweep, it won’t be on Adebayo who battled intensely with the greatest player in the game at the moment.
When Miami signed Kyle Lowry and extended Butler, they committed themselves to a short deadline to contend. To their credit, almost no one believed they’d even get this close again. The Heat are +1700 to come back and win this series and they are currently the ninth ranked team to win the title in 2024 at +2000. It’s now or never for the Butler led Heat.
The Nuggets, a team that endured an entire year of stupid takes about a two-time MVP (who turns out is pretty damn good) are just ONE game away! Tune in tonight and see if the Larry O’Brien trophy is hoisted in Denver for the first time ever.
Tip-off Monday, June 12th @ 8:30 PM ET.
Over/Under Total: 208.5
Nuggets -350
Heat +275
*All odds playable on bodog.eu as of Monday, June 11th.*