NBA Finals Game 3 Preview: Josh Eberley
With the NBA Finals finely poised at 1-1, Josh Eberley is back giving Bodog his game 3 preview. Who will take a series lead in Miami?
The Miami Heat just don’t care. They don’t care that they are an 8th seed, they don’t care that Jokic is the best player in the world right now, and they most certainly don’t care about that Denver altitude.
The Nuggets (-2.5) are headed to Miami tied up in a series that’s feeling a lot more like a dog fight than the prior promised massacre. The Nuggets went into Game 1 at -430 to win the series and headed into Game 3 that number is now -260.
First, let’s talk about what’s gone right for the Heat. First off, their three-point shooting remains insane. 2017 Kevin Durant and Steph Curry Warriors insane. They are now 30-74 (40.5%) in this series. Gabe Vincent has shot 9-16 from deep (+102 OVER 2.5 threes in Game 3) and has statistically been an even better shooter at home this postseason.
Denver is doing their utmost to keep the Heat hitters stroking. Michael Porter Jr., who was enjoying a really nice playoff run was picked on over and over defensively in Game 2. The 6’10” forward who is primarily known as a shooter is also an incredibly sad 3-17 from deep in this series, shooting just 29% from the floor. A lot of coaches would be thinking about a change but Mike Malone is a known champion of his players, so look for a bounceback game with his coaches’ confidence behind him.
Michael Porter Jr. NBA betting props for Game 3:
Pts-rebs-asts o/u 23.5: -107/-122
5+ threes and a Denver win: +500
15+ points, 3 assists, and a Denver win: +950
To no one’s surprise, Jokic has been the best player in this series by a mile. His absurd numbers have not declined one bit. Through two, Big Honey is averaging 34.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 9 APG, while shooting 60% from the floor and 40% from three. His over/under (-121/-108) for total points, rebounds, and assists in Game 3 is 51.5!
At times, Jokic looked unstoppable in Game 2 and yet, the Miami defense didn’t break. Their rotations were crisp and the Nuggets struggled to create open looks for anyone. Jokic’s buckets against everyone not named Cody Zeller were hard earned despite his consistent ability to find opportunities.
Perhaps the most incredible facet of the tied series is the lack of a star showing from Jimmy Butler. Butler is only averaging 17 PPG and he’s shooting under 40% from the floor. However, look at that to change in Game 3. Take a look at Butler’s home and away splits.
PPG: Home = 29.3 vs Away = 25.8
RPG: Home = 7.5 vs Away = 6.4
FTA/G: Home = 10.6 vs Away = 6.8
That home town whistle is no joke. Don’t be shocked if Butler’s highest scoring game of the series comes in Game 3 after two days of rest. He’s -107 to score at least 26 but is +118 to score 28 or more, which is something he’s done nine times during this playoff run.
Fans can be thankful the series has remained tight but if the contests stay close, you’d have to think head coach Erik Spoelstra wins in a battle of X’s and O’s. A situation that seemed somewhat hard to even imagine a week ago. The Heat can’t let off one bit and the Nuggets need to find a way to shore up their defense. Who wins Game 3?
Tip-off Wednesday, June 7th @ 8:30 PM ET.
Nuggets -135
Heat +115
*All odds from bodog.eu as of Monday, June 5.*