NBA Finals Betting: Josh Eberley Preview
And then there were two. As the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat prepare to battle it out for the NBA Championship, Josh Eberley gives his lowdown on the NBA finals betting.
Don’t talk about David, don’t talk about Goliath. The odds may paint that picture but in a year of genuine parity, where both NBA finalists were favoured to lose on the journey to the pinnacle, the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat have earned the right to suit up without premeditated and half-baked narratives.
The Denver Nuggets might be -430 to win the 2023 Larry O’Brien Trophy but they weren’t favoured against the Phoenix Suns in the second-round and opened at +1500 following the 2022 Finals! If you are curious, they started eighth in NBA title odds to begin the 2022-23 campaign behind Golden State, Boston, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Phoenix, both Los Angeles teams and Miami (+1400).
The Miami Heat are sitting at +320 and are the clear underdog on paper in this series but have been in this position on multiple occasions this postseason. They were huge dogs at +400 vs. Boston and an astronomical +700 vs. Milwaukee. Don’t forget the Bucks actually sat Giannis Antetokounmpo for an extra game because they vastly underestimated the Heat.
Niceties aside, the Nuggets should win this series. No eighth seed has ever won an NBA title and an eighth seed hasn’t even been to the finals since the ‘99 New York Knicks. The Miami Heat have found a ton of success playing zone defense this year and unfortunately for them, the Nuggets are excellent against the zone. From a young age, you learn that a zone defense is most vulnerable at the elbow and Nikola Jokic is literally the best player in the league in the elbow area. Seeding aside, the Nuggets are a logistical nightmare for the Heat.
Jokic, fresh off two MVP awards entered this year facing nearly unprecedented skepticism to win a third, with odds as low as +2800 to win his third-in-a-row. This season saw all-time lows in critical thinking, rational debate, and on-topic discourse on the MVP topic. Wherever you landed on that topic — the playoffs started and it became beyond apparent that Jokic is currently the best player in the world.
This postseason, Jokic is averaging 29.9 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 10.3 APG, while shooting nearly 54% from the floor and 47% from three. These are the proverbial video game numbers that the kids are talking about. No player has ever averaged a triple-double in a championship winning year and the only other player to do it for 10 or more playoff games was Jason Kidd in 2007.
If the Heat have any chance, Jokic is going to have to be heavily bothered in this series. Tristan Thompson stopped by NBA Today and gave his take on how the Miami Heat might be effective against the 2-time MVP winner. His tips included picking Jokic up early and maintaining a constant level of physical play. Bam Adebayo, who is himself a terrific defensive player isn’t known for his physicality and is surrendering a tremendous amount of height and weight in the matchup.
“No, I’ll hold the next one.” Said the Larry Bird Trophy winner following the Game 7 beatdown of the Boston Celtics. Jimmy Butler, who knows business doesn’t end in the conference finals was fantastic to close the series and he’s been a revelation during this playoff run. Stars taking the next-step in the playoffs isn’t new but Butler hitting an even higher level at 33-years-old in his 12th season is ridiculous.
Butler is averaging 28.5 PPG, 7 RPG, 5.7 APG, while shooting 48% from the field. The 28.5 PPG are a playoff career high. If Miami wants to win their fourth championship and deny Denver their first, Butler will have to go even further. That or Caleb Martin needs to continue playing like prime Ray Allen.
On potential big performances, the Finals MVP odds again heavily back the Nuggets. Although no player has won the Finals MVP on a losing team since Jerry West did it in 1969, if the worst was to happen for Denver it’s not impossible that Jokic still puts up monster games and takes the award. His odds not being pushed further is somewhat surprising.
Nikola Jokic -300
Jimmy Butler +325
Jamal Murray +900
Pundits may worry about the ratings, fans might bemoan their favourite players getting knocked out early but this Finals was hard fought and well earned on both sides. Lovers of the game have every reason to be enthused. Game 1 live on TSN tonight at 8:30 PM Eastern.
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