Aaron Rose: March Madness Betting Preview
With March Madness a matter of hours away, our man Aaron Rose has his say on the NCAA odds and whether Purdue can gain revenge.
It’s time for redemption.
That’s the mentality the Purdue Boilermakers enter this year’s NCAA March Madness tournament with. It was a year ago at this time that they became the punchline of the tournament, somehow losing in inexplicable fashion to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson.
It was shocking.
Statistically speaking, it was the biggest upset in tournament history and simply inexcusable for a team as talented as last year’s Boilermakers.
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But this year things should be different. Canadian center Zach Edey decided to return for one more run and appears poised to clinch his second straight NCAA Player of the Year award. He’s taken his game to another level and again the Boilermakers enter the tournament a No. 1 seed.
Purdue looks even better this year. They’re outscoring opposing teams by over 13 points per game and boast the country’s 12th-best offense. That’s thanks in no small part to Edey who finished the regular season as the country’s leading scorer averaging 24.4 points per game to go with 11.7 rebounds and 2.2 blocks.
At some point over the next few weeks, Edey is going to join Ralph Samson and Bill Walton as the only multi-time Naismith Player of the Year award winners. He’s going to go down as one of the greatest collegiate basketball players of all time. But to really solidify his resume, he needs a tournament championship.
For Purdue, that’s a realistic dream. They have +650 odds on Bodog to win March Madness, the third shortest in the tournament, and nothing less than a deep run out of the Midwest bracket should be acceptable.
The Favourites
UConn enters the tournament looking to become the first back-to-back champion in over two decades. They’ll do it with one of college hoops’ most veteran and NBA-ready teams.
They have everything you could want in a team at this time of the year. Senior guards Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer make up one of the country’s most dominant backcourts and bring the veteran know-how that’s crucial in the tournament. By their side are a couple of underclassmen Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan who are widely expected to be first-round picks in this year’s NBA Draft.
UConn is balanced and dominant. They have the country’s most lethal offense and a smothering defense, and it won’t be the least bit surprising if the Huskies once again find themselves back in the final as the Bodog favourite to win it all this year.
Wildcats to Watch
Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham have a chance to cement themselves at the very top of the NBA Draft with a run in the tournament for a Wildcat team that looks as good as any in the tournament.
Sheppard has been picked to go as high as No. 1 in the Draft by the Ringer and is the kind of lights-out three-point shooter who can single-handedly flip a game with a flurry of buckets from behind the arc. He’s averaging 12.8 points per game while shooting 52.5% on 4.4 three-point attempts per game this season and may be a real difference-maker in the tournament.
Dillingham shouldn’t have to wait much longer to hear his name called this summer as he’s another prospect tabbed to go in the lottery. The 6-foot-2 freshman point guard is averaging 15.4 points per game while converting 44.9% of his three-pointers this year.
As a team, the Wildcats lead the nation in three-point shooting with a 41.2% stroke from behind the arc. Their Achilles’ heel has tended to be youth in the tournament, but if they get hot, Coach John Calipari’s team is more than capable of coming out of the South with +850 odds to reach the Final Four.
Prospects to Know
Colorado’s Cody Williams, Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht, Duke’s Kyle Filipowski and Jared McCain, and Baylor’s Ja’Kobe Walter are all among the most noteworthy NBA prospects in the tournament.
Williams will have the toughest road ahead of the group, having to take on Boise State in the First Four. The Buffaloes are -2.5-point favourites on Bodog to beat the Broncos and if they can win that game, they’ll take on a Florida team without starting center Micah Handlogten who fractured his leg in the SEC tournament.
Filipowski and McCain lead a Blue Devils team that looks much improved in Coach Jon Scheyer’s second year leading Duke. They’re heavy favourites to beat Vermont in the first round and should survive the first weekend without a hiccup.
Knecht has reshaped the Volunteer’s offense this season, giving Tennessee the kind of balance they lacked last season. A 21.1 points per game scorer, Knecht has +135 odds on Bodog to lead Tennessee to at least an Elite Eight berth and a date with Purdue.
Walter leads an offensively electric Baylor team that can make it rain from three-point range. Though the Bears don’t have the kind of defense they’ve been known for in years last, Walter has shown in flashes this season that he can take control and lead Baylor where they’re looking to go.
Plenty of Canadians
Edey may be the most well-known Canadian in the tournament but there’s no shortage of Canadian hoopers looking to make an impact this month.
Montreal’s Quincy Guerrier and Tyrese Samuel will help lead Illinois and Florida, respectively. Samuel in particular will be relied on heavily to help fill the void left by the injured Handlogten for the Gators.
Ryan Nembhard is following in his older brother’s footsteps at Gonzaga and will look to lead the Bulldogs on the kind of run Andrew did back in 2021. He’s been every bit as good as Andrew was in college and should be among the longest-lasting Canadians in the tournament.
Emmanuel Miller, the younger brother of Minnesota Timberwolves prospect Leonard Miller, will look to wrap up his collegiate career with a deep run for TCU. He leads the Horned Frogs in scoring this season and will be counted on to spring the first-round upset over eighth-seeded Utah Stats.