EPL Betting Preview: The Final Day
They’ve done it again. Manchester City have claimed the English Premier League title for 2022-23, coming back from another slow start to clinch first place with two matches remaining in their regular season.
At least that’s how the EPL table stands as we go to press. There’s a non-zero chance City will be penalized points for repeatedly breaking EPL and UEFA financial rules between 2009 and 2018, but the last time UEFA officials tried to sanction the Sky Blues in 2020 with a two-year ban from European competition, the Court of Arbitration for Sport overruled them.
Whatever happens off the pitch, the 2022-23 Premier League race has been decided from a betting standpoint, and Man City are the winners with 89 points (28 wins, five draws and four losses) in 37 matches. Arsenal, who held down first place for most of the season before fading late, are in second with 81 points (25-6-6) and just one match left to go.
There’s still plenty to play for this week across the Premier League. There are 10 matches on the Premier League schedule this Sunday, each with over 100 soccer props attached, and our EPL betting preview will show you all of the other goodies on the soccer odds board at press time.
To Stay Up
While Manchester City have cemented the EPL title, there’s drama at the bottom of the table where the EPL Betting really gets tasty, with three teams in relegation trouble:
Everton –450
Leicester City +400
Leeds United +1200
Southampton (6-6-25) have already secured the Wooden Spoon with 24 points; Leicester (8-7-22) and Leeds (7-10-20) are in the drop zone, tied with 31 points, and Everton (7-12-18) are two points in the clear. Each club has just one match left to play.
Everton will stay up with a win at home this Sunday against Bournemouth, and they’re –220 favourites on the 1×2 lines to do just that. However, even a draw (+370) would be enough to put the Toffees in peril, let alone a loss (+550).
Let’s say Leicester City beat West Ham this Sunday as –105 home faves, and Leeds United do the same to visiting Tottenham as slight +170 home dogs to +140 for Spurs. A draw in the Everton-Bournemouth match would create a three-way tie at 34 points.
Goal differential is the first tie-breaker in the EPL, and Leicester City hold the hammer with one match remaining at -18, six goals better than Everton (-24) and nine ahead of Leeds United (-27). This is why the Foxes have significantly shorter odds than Leeds to stay in the Premier League.
A loss isn’t necessarily the end for Everton – either Leicester or Leeds would still have to win Sunday. But as you can see, the Toffees have all the motivation in the world to get the full three points versus Bournemouth.
PFA Player of the Year
The race for the PFA (Professional Footballers’ Association) Player of the Year award is still on at press time, but really, Erling Haaland has it all but sewn up at –5000 in this one horse EPL betting race. The Manchester City striker has taken the Premier League by storm since his transfer from Borussia Dortmund, scoring 36 goals to break the EPL season record – and he still has one match left.
If you’re looking for a long shot, Haaland’s teammate Kevin de Bruyne is available at +2000, and fellow Norwegian Martin Odegaard (Arsenal) is third on Bodog’s EPL specials list at +3300.
EPL 2023-24 Title Odds
So what does the Premier League have in store for 2024? Again, there’s a chance Manchester City will face sanctions that could extend into next season; even taking that into account, the defending champions are –150 favourites over the field to win yet another title.
Given the improvements both clubs made this past year, Arsenal and Manchester United are strong second favourites at +800, tied with what appears to be a Liverpool side in decline. The Reds (66 points in 37 matches) need a miracle this week to overtake Man United (69 points in 36 matches) for fourth place and the last EPL berth in the 2023-24 Champions League.
Already locked in for the Champions League, alongside Man City and Arsenal are Newcastle United (70 points in 37 matches), who made the very quick leap from the mid-table in their first year under Saudi control. The Magpies are running the same organizational script as City, so they might be a bargain at +1400 (tied as fifth favourites with Chelsea) to win the EPL title next year, but the Sky Blues have been doing this for well over a decade now. They’ve got a head start.
EPL 2023-24 Specials
With the spotlight firmly on Haaland and triumphant Manchester City, it’s only natural to see them featured in Bodog’s EPL specials for 2023-24. It is perhaps surprising, though, to see that Haaland is even money against the field (–130) to retain the Golden Boot as the league’s top goalscorer.
Maybe Haaland’s 2022-23 performance will prove to be an outlier. There are other quality scorers out there, Tottenham’s Harry Kane (28 goals) most prominent among them. The former three-time Golden Boot winner might be even more dangerous next year if he transfers to Manchester United as has been long rumoured.
As for Manchester City themselves, instead of picking one of their individual opponents like United, you can bet on the entire field at +120 to beat them to the title. And in what might be the tastiest of our Man City specials, you can bet the combo of winning the EPL title and Haaland winning the Golden Boot at +175.
More EPL soccer odds for 2023-24 will be posted over the coming months here at Bodog Sportsbook, so keep checking in for the latest lines and analysis, and don’t forget: Major League Soccer is in full swing from now through to December. The game must continue.